Direct Answer
Monte Carlo simulation generates thousands of possible futures from a probability model and summarizes the distribution of outcomes. In gambling it answers questions like 'what is the chance my bankroll survives this season?' or 'what's the 95th percentile drawdown?'
Key Takeaways
- Monte Carlo generates a distribution of possible outcomes.
- It exposes tail risk that intuition hides.
- Standard before sizing changes.
How it works
Define the model (edge, variance, unit size). Simulate one season many times — typically 10,000+. Read the distribution: mean, median, worst 5%, longest losing streak, deepest drawdown.
Why it matters
Closed-form math gets ugly fast for real strategies. Monte Carlo is robust, transparent, and surfaces tail risk that intuition misses entirely. Most professional bettors run them before sizing changes.
Frequently asked questions
How many simulations are enough?+
10,000 is a robust default; 100,000 for tail-risk precision.
Educational only. Not wagering, financial, or legal advice. See our editorial policy.